How Do Disruptive Technologies Evolve and Shape Dynamics of Technological Cycle?

A vast literature exists on disruptive technologies; however, some fundamental questions are unknown, such as: how is the speed of disruptive technologies in competitive markets? How is the pathway of technological cycle of disruptive technologies? The study confronts these questions here by developing a theoretical and empirical analysis, which endeavors to explain the behavior of disruptive technologies, called here killer technologies, that generate industrial and corporate change. To explore the behavior of disruptive technologies, a simple model is proposed to analyze and predict how these technologies destroys and substitute established technologies. Empirical evidence of this theoretical framework is based on the evolution of some technologies in U.S. recorded music industry. Theoretical framework and empirical evidence hint at general properties of the behavior of disruptive technologies: 1) disruptive technology has a disproportionate growth in markets in relation to the established technology; 2) technological cycle of disruptive technology has upwave phase longer than downwave phase (asymmetric path of technological cycle). Overall, then, the proposed theoretical framework of disruptive technologies and empirical evidence here can explain the behavior of new technologies that generate technological and industrial change, and support best practices for technology management of firms and innovation policy of nations