How to Determine the Probability of Discovery in Research Fields?

The goal of this paper is to determine the probability of discovery to explain the processes of discovery in different research fields over time and space. This study applies a probabilistic model of Poisson to assess the probability of discoveries in the research fields of medicine and physics. Results suggest that in 10 years the probability that at least one discovery occurs is higher in physics (11.10%) than medicine (6.53%). Nevertheless, if the patents are used to measure the inventions and discoveries, results reveal that the probability of patented inventions is higher in the research fields of medicine than physics. The latter result may be due to more opportunistic scholars and stakeholders in the research field of medicine, rather than in physics, to develop new ideas and inventions for commercial needs. Overall, then, discoveries are due to manifold factors, such as mental ability, existing status of culture, institution and research funding. This study clarifies, as far as possible, some characteristics of the emergence of discoveries and inventions for scientific and technological progress in society