How to revive the czech economy in 1999

The article contains Komerční banka's analysis of the Czech economy. The authors conclude that the economy goes through a classical recession, caused by the joint working of the following main factors: waves in firms' and households' investment, volatility of foreign capital, stabilization policy mismanagement, and a credit cycle. An important part of the recession was a result of the restrictive monetary and fiscal policy of 1997, which had an impact on the economy with a one-year lag. The authors conclude that a slight recovery of demand will not come earlier than in the second half of 1999, and that it will be driven mainly by the revival of real household incomes.