How will ICTs affect our environment in 2020?

Purpose – This paper aims to present the results of a research project that the Institute for Prospective Technology Studies commissioned to research the possible effects of information and communication technologies (ICT) on a set of environmental indicators in 2020. Design/methodology/approach – The project adopted an innovative methodology combining qualitative scenario‐building and quantitative modelling. Findings – The general conclusion was that the impact of ICT is roughly between −20 and +30 percent. Therefore there are significant opportunities for improving environmental sustainability through ICTs, which can rationalise energy management in housing (or facilities), make passenger and freight transport more efficient, and enable a product‐to‐service shift across the economy. Originality/value – The impact of ICT should accordingly be taken into account by environmental policies in order to ensure that ICT applications make a positive contribution to environmental outcomes, and, at the same time, to suppress rebound effects.