Identifying Abnormal Returns to Food and Agribusiness Stocks on Key Farm Policy Legislative Dates

The efficient market hypothesis would suggest that stock prices incorporate the information revealed in the public process of creating legislation as the debate occurred. Thus, there should be no abnormal returns to agribusiness stocks on key legislative dates when drafting and altering the farm bill. Using an event study methodology, key legislative dates are tested for abnormal returns to firms that supply inputs to or process outputs of agricultural producers. Typically, agribusinesses react on the date legislation emerges from the joint House and Senate conference committee.