Identifying emerging risks for environmental policies

We are living in a time of rapid and extensive global change. Driven by human development, the surface of the Earth is changing rapidly, along with its climate and ecosystems. In this rapidly changing world, risks are present in multiple systems and on multiple scales, from ongoing changes (such as those occurring in the climate), to more sudden-onset risks, such as mutating microbial pathogens or chemical pollutants. While identifying, predicting and monitoring known risks is vitally important, perhaps the bigger challenge is anticipating the threats to the environment - and to human health via the environment - that are not yet observable. This poses unique challenges to policymakers and their advisors: how can we better anticipate environmental changes? How can more, or more accurate, knowledge be obtained to prevent risks from becoming disasters? How can decisions best be made in the face of uncertainty? How can we make sure early warnings are not only received, but acted upon? And, what tools and governance systems are needed to make this happen? This Future Brief will explore these questions, discussing some of the tools and approaches that can be used to identify emerging risk. These include strategic foresight tools, scanning of the internet for information, citizen science and state-of-the-art monitoring technologies. Finally, the brief will discuss the policy implications of these new approaches, with reference to some of the strategies that are currently employed to search for emerging risks.