Identifying the best market prospects for US agricultural exports

Market prospects for US agricultural exports through 1994 were predicted using econometric models which estimated US export growth rate as a function of the countries' trade-related and macroeconomic variables. The models used include an approximation of the predictive model proposed by the FAS in 1990 (MFAS) and one which reflects the authors' view that additional variables need consideration (SR). The SR model turned out to be the better-fitting specification and predicted the top markets to be Mexico, Hong Kong, Guyana, Canada, Japan, Turkey, France, Thailand, South Korea, and Costa Rica. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.