Identifying the Signs of Currency Speculation in Hong Kong's Linked exchange Rate

This paper identifies the ex ante factors of currency speculation based on the experience of Hong Kong’s three episodes in 1988, 1998 and 2007. The dynamic conditional correlation models are used to study the inter-temporal interactions among the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index futures and exchange rate difference. The logistic model is applied to study the probability of currency speculation. The empirical results indicate that unusual movements in the exchange rate difference, Hang Seng Index premium and open interest of futures contracts can be found in the period prior to and during currency speculations. In addition, the conditional correlation between stock market and exchange rate market declined sharply during the periods of currency speculation. The paper traces the disposition of the speculators.