Immigration Politics and Electoral Consequences: Anticipating the Dynamics of Latino Vote in the 2014 Election

Abstract The debate over comprehensive immigration reform in the summer and fall of 2013 had the potential to significantly affect future elections by, once again, reshaping the image of the Republican Party (GOP) in the eyes of Latino voters. In this effort, we explore the demographic and political origins of 2013s legislative effort and the history of immigration politics in recent decades. We examine recent polling data that suggest that movement in the GOP’s images in response to this process is possible – in both directions. Finally, we identify specific congressional districts where razor-thin margins in the past could present opportunities for both parties, depending on whether and how the immigration issue is resolved. In so doing, we identify four distinct ways in which a less hostile GOP might improve its electoral outcomes among Latino registered voters.