Impact de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation en Tunisie : simulations à l'aide d'un modèle à générations imbriquées

This paper discusses the impact of aging on the financial equilibrium of the Tunisian retirement system and the macroeconomic implications of reform, including a partial switch to pre-funding. We use a stylized, closed economy and an overlapping-generation model to analyze the impact of the introduction of a multi-pillar system combining the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and pre-funded approaches (including temporarily and permanently pre-funded plans). The analysis focuses on (1) the response of saving to the reform at the aggregate level and (2) cohort-specific accumulation and consumption profiles. The reform generates a strong crowding-out effect, restraining capital accumulation. Our simulations also show that the burden of the reform is spread unevenly among cohorts.