Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables

This article aims at evaluating potential growth for France, Germany and the euro area during the period from after the 2007-2008 credit crisis until 2012. Such an assessment plays a central role in the determination of the structural deficit and therefore in the definition of consolidation plans. After presenting the possible effects of the crisis on potential growth identified by the literature, we use for our evaluations an unobserved component model. This helps to reconcile the so-called traditional approaches, based on the use of a production function and the statistical approaches based on filtering methods. Our evaluations show for the different areas that the crisis has had a significant impact on potential growth starting in 2009; by 2012, potential growth should remain weak. The low potential growth is caused in part by a sharp decline in labor input, particularly in France and the euro area. This decline stems mainly from an increase of structural unemployment, except in Germany.