Impact of the Political and Economic Restructuring in Eastern Europe on the Availability of Net Energy Exports--An Empirical Framework.

The recent political changes will not only affect the domestic economies of the Eastern European countries but also important world commodity markets. This paper investigates consequences for world energy markets. For this purpose, a disaggregated model of the Eastern European energy markets is developed that accounts for the introduction markets (" pricing") into the formerly central planned economies. Deregulation will stimulate conservation and will favor "noble" fuels, i.e. oil, gas, and electricity. (Potential) net energy exports will slightly increase by 1995 where gas exports could compensate for the decline in oil exports. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers