Impacts of the EU biofuel policy on agricultural markets and land use - Modelling assessment with AGLINK-COSIMO (2012 version)

The report aims to analyse different scenarios that could occur in the EU in the years to come. First is an assumed situation in which by 2020 biofuels would contribute 8% towards the RE transport target; other RE in transport such as renewable electricity would have to fill the remaining gap. Secondly the EC's ILUC proposal is analysed. Finally a complete removal of the biofuel policy in the EU is simulated. All scenarios are compared to a situation without any change in policy. The simulations are run with the AGLINK-COSIMO model, described in Chapter 2. The consequences of these scenarios on the EU biofuel market are analysed in Chapter 3, the impacts on feedstock prices and balances in the EU are presented in Chapter 4, and on world prices in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents the main changes in land use worldwide.