Implications of Changes in the composition of Australian Exports for Export Sector Instability

Variability in export returns is a major source of instability in the Australian economy and, in the presence of price and wage rigidities, may be a substantial cause of social costs. There have been calls for explicit policies to change Australia's pattern of exports away from traditional agricultural and mineral exports. In this article, the implications of changes in the pattern of Australian exports have been examined taking into account the variability of each category and the correlations between categories. From the results it appears that the diversification from rural to mineral exports since 1970 has substantially reduced the variability of export returns. While rural exports remain the most variable component of the total, a reduction in the rural share of total exports and a corresponding expansion of Australias traditional manufactured exports would appear to have surprisingly little effect on export variability. Copyright 1989 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.