Improving schedule reliability based on copulas: An application to five of the most congested US airports

This study, based Newark Liberty International, New York John F. Kennedy, New York LaGuardia, Chicago O’Hare International and San Francisco International in the US, provides a perspective on the predictability of on-time performance evaluation by applying an actuarial and financial method called copula. It is common for the percentage of on-time gate arrivals to be portrayed in daily news as an indicator of schedule reliability. However, the degree of interdependency between gate arrival delays and block delays may provide some indication of schedule reliability.