Indian crude oil market reaction towards Russia-Ukraine war : an empirical study of spot and futures market

The paper examines the impact of Russia-Ukraine war news on Indian crude oil spot and futures markets. The event study Methodology is employed to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets on the Russia-Ukraine War announcement date. For robustness of results, traditional market model as well as the market model + GARCH (1,1) model is used for analysis purposes. A non-parametric test (modified Corrado test) has been employed to test the significance of abnormal returns. The findings indicate that the war announcement generates significant excess returns for investors who take a long position most of the day during the event window. Information asymmetry is found in the Indian crude oil market, as in the case of the spot market, it takes four days to impound information into prices, and in the case of futures prices, it takes two days for reflection. These findings of research are useful for traders in the formation of their short-term trading strategies as well as for the government in the formation of effective energy policy strategies.