Individual space – time activity-based model: a model for the simulation of airborne infectious-disease transmission by activity-bundle simulation

Activity bundle (AB) simulation is a method for obtaining a specific contact network (specific to target infectious disease) from the space – time dynamics of individuals constrained both by their social activity and by the physical condition of the space. Taking advantage of AB simulation, an individual space – time activity-based model (ISTAM) is presented which integrates the infectious-disease evolution process, individual activity patterns, and stochastic infection model. ISTAM was applied to the University of Southampton in order to simulate a hypothetical influenza epidemic. The results show that the model behaviour is approximately consistent with expectations.