Industrial Pricing and Growth Fluctuations in India

In a simple 2 sector general equilibrium macromodel profit maximisation by a representative firm leads to multiple long-run non-Walrasian equilibria with excess profits and excess capacity. The model is reduced to two non-linear differential equation. Using calibration and simulation it is shown that yearly non-agricultural price and output series for the Indian economy are reproduced along dynamic medium-run adjustment trajectories approaching one or other of the equilibria. Alternative mark-up hypotheses are tested. The simulations show that the medium-run markup is counter cyclical but has little variation. This behaviour of the mark-up plays an important part in maintaining stability, and explaining the historical price and output series. The model therefore helps to provide a microfoundation for structuralist macroeconomics.