Information Inherent in Implicit Distributions

Black (1976) model assumes a lognormal distribution for futures prices, and has been shown to misprice deep in-the-money and deep out-of-the-money futures options. In this paper, the jump-diffusion stochastic interest rates model developed by Doffou and Hilliard (1999a) is fitted to currency futures and futures options data to yield probabilistic information. The model implies non-normal skewness and kurtosis for the log of price relative, and prices currency futures options better than Bates' (1991) model and far better than Black's model