Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts in two Austrian case study landscapes at field level

This article presents an integrated modelling framework (IMF) at field scales including a bio-economic farm optimization model. It is applied on two contrasting Austrian landscapes to analyze climate change and CAP policy reform impacts in 2040. Changing policies reduce farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes respectively. Climate change increases gross margins and farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Climate induced intensification such as removing of landscape elements and increasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program (AEP). However, productivity gains from climate change increase the opportunity costs of AEP participation.