Internal Mobility and Likelihood of Skill Losses in Localities of Emigration: Theory and Preliminary Empirical Application to Some Developing Economies

An economic model is introduced to discuss the impacts of rural migration on skills in source and destination localities and regions. Two versions of the model are used without and with risks. In this context, the model considers that rural migration is determined by the demand for education and urban rural wage differences. The optimal decision rules attained are tested against available aggregate data for series of developing countries. The preliminary empirical results show the existence of country variations of rural emigration with varied impacts on education with likely losses in localities of emigration. Economic and social policies are to account for these impacts mainly when emphasis is placed on regional and local development programs.