Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

Regression coefficients are interpreted by a counterfactual experiment. For simultaneous equations this experiment can be implemented if the coefficients are identified, and throws some light on the role of instruments and the method of indirect least squares. This paper discusses another counterfactual experiment in the vector autoregressive model in order to interpret the coefficients of an identified cointegrating relation. The dynamics of the model is used to implement a long-run change by changing the current values. The counterfactual experiment can be conducted precisely when the cointegrating relation is identified. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.