INTERTEMPORAL PRICE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE BEEF MARKET: A REDUCED FORM ANALYSIS OF WEEKLY DATA

An intertemporal reduced form model is estimated for boxed beef, carcass, and slaughter prices on a weekly basis. The results indicate that prices respond jointly to changes in economic information within weeks t and t – 1, supporting time-series studies showing farm and wholesale prices to be nearly instantaneously related. However, the existence of market uncertainty entails significant intertemporal lags, revealed by prices stabilizing 9-14 weeks subsequent to a market shock. The model results imply that postponing marketings of fed cattle to capitalize on expected price advantages would be risky and that selling cattle carcass grade and weight is more favorable when prices respond to increases in beef production.