Interurban migration and the dynamics of a system of cities: 1. The stochastic framework with an application to the French urban system

A stochastic framework for the modelling of interurban migration is presented. The model is an extension of a recently developed master-equation approach to interregional migration. The population dynamics of the French urban system, described by a set of 78 cities, is investigated within the period 1954 - 82. The importance of synergy effects (self reinforcing collective effects) as well as socioeconomic macrovariables for the understanding of urban dynamics becomes obvious. A forecasting of urban dynamics (relative urban population, growth rates of the cities) for a closer period, year 2002, by using two different kinds of scenarios, confirm this result and give further insight into the nested structure of urban systems.