Investigating Disaggregate East-West Trade Data: The Reshaping of the International Division of Labor

In this paper we analyze annual trade data for Austria and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) on a disaggregate level. Permanent structural changes in East-West trade turn out to be an important feature in the transition process. The considerable contribution of intra-industry trade to overall trade growth indicates smaller adjustment needs in Western Europe than suggested by earlier literature. Our results support the hypothesis that the Southern European Union members will be most strongly affected by competition from CEE exporters. In turn, the Union's reluctance to admit further members is likely to differ considerably across CEE applicants.