Irreversibility, Uncertainty and the Adoption of Transgenic Crops: the Case of BT-Maize in France

This study applies a real option approach to quantify, ex-ante, the maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs that would justify immediate adoption of Bt maize in France. Based on field trials, we find that incremental private reversible benefits in the agricultural sector are -18 million euro yearly for maize for animal feed and 1 million euro yearly for maize for human consumption. Incremental social irreversible benefits from reduced insecticide use are negligible. The maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs are -28 million euro yearly for maize for animal feed and 0.4 million Euro yearly for maize for human consumption.