Is Aid for Trade Effective? A Panel Quantile Regression Approach

This paper investigates whether Aid for Trade (AfT) leads to greater exports in recipient countries. Using panel data and panel quantile regression techniques, our results suggest that total AfT disbursements promote the export of goods and services, but is limited primarily to exporters above the .35 quantile of the conditional distribution of exports. When disaggregating by type of AfT, we find that aid to improve trade policy and regulation is not associated with higher exports. Aid to build productive capacity is effective for almost all quantiles of the export distribution but the 10th, with the effect being stronger at the higher tails of the conditional distribution. Aid used to build infrastructure is found to affect exports only at the 0.10 quantile. In contrast, aid disbursed for general budget support (an untargeted type of aid) is not associated with greater export levels irrespective of the quantile