Is China on the Way to Reduce Agricultural Methane Emissions? Agricultural Methane Emissions Evolution and Driving Force Analysis

The agricultural sector plays an imperative role in the methane emissions in China. This study employs the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and decoupling analysis in driving factors of methane emissions from agricultural production for the years 2010-2019. The study investigates the key driving factors in two ways: first, the study measures the methane emissions between the emission source structure, the emission intensity, the economic activity, and the population effects. Second, Tapio's decoupling index is used to analyze the association between export-induced methane emission and economic growth over the whole period. The CH4 emission sources derived from the agricultural sector in this paper are mainly divided into three categories: rice cultivation, livestock manure, and enteric fermentation. Results showed that (1) rice cultivation led to the increasing trend in CH4 emissions, especially in Northwest and South China; (2) the economic activity effect was the key driver in rising methane emission, while emission intensity took the opposite impact on it. (3) drivers' degrees present spatial and temporal heterogeneity; (4) The decoupling states showed weak and strong decoupling during the studied period, implying transformation of farm management has achieved preliminary performance. Consequently, China is on the proper pathway to reduce its direct CH4 emissions, and upgrade the domestic and international agricultural markets with the promise of China's nationally determined contribution target