Is Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case

Concerns abound about the potential impact of climate change on future migration, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, one of the regions that is likely to suffer the most from climate change. Yet it is not clear whether so far climate patterns have been a key driver of internal migration in countries such as Yemen, despite the pressures created by water scarcity. By combining data from Yemen’s latest census and a weather database as well as other geographic information, we analyze the determinants of past net internal migration rates. Next, using future climate change scenarios, we predict the potential impact of rising temperatures on future net internal migration rates. The results suggest that while climate does have an impact on net internal migration rates, this impact is limited, so that on the basis of past patterns of climate and migration, rising temperature may not have a large impact on future net internal migration.