Is earnings uncertainty relevant for educational choice? An empirical analysis for China

We use the method of Dominitz and Manski [1996. Eliciting student expectations of the return to schooling. <italic>Journal of Human Resources</italic> 31, no. 1: 1-26] to solicit anticipated wage distributions for continuing to a master degree or going to work after completing the bachelor degree. The means of the distributions have an effect on intention to continue as predicted by theory. The dispersions in these individual distributions have no effect on intention to continue, suggesting that anticipated earnings risk does not play a role in the decision.