Is internet access bad news for media-capturing incumbents?

This paper's objective is to investigate the effects of internet access on voter behavior in governor elections at the state level in aconsolidating democracy. Using a fractional probit model for panel data, we analyze the electoral outcomes in 31 Mexican states and Mexico City during state/city governor elections between 1999 and 2015. The evidence suggests that, in environments where traditional media might be captured by government (1) an increase in government expenditure growth in the year before elections increases the incumbent party's vote share, and (2) in contrast, an increase in the portion of the population that has access to the internet reduces it. Not surprisingly, these effects seem to diminish as more broadcast companies enter the market. Unlike previous studies, this paper considers how changes in the market conditions (industry concentration and technology) of news supply, and their resulting effects on media freedom, influence voters.