Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No

Abstract Conventional wisdom dictates that the more we know about a problem domain the easier it is to predict the effects of policies in that domain. Strangely, this wisdom is not sanctioned by formal analysis, when the notions of “knowledge” and “policy” are given concrete definitions in the context of nonparametric causal analysis. This note describes this peculiarity and speculates on its implications.

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Year of publication:	2014
Authors:	Pearl, Judea
Published in:	Journal of Causal Inference. - De Gruyter, ISSN 2193-3685, ZDB-ID 2742570-8. - Vol. 2.2014, 1, p. 109-112
Publisher:	De Gruyter
Subject:	policy evaluation \| transportability \| causal effects \| identification \| instrumental variables

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Type of publication:	Article
Type of publication (narrower categories):	research-article
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.1515/jci-2014-0017 [DOI]
Source:	Other ZBW resources

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014610814