Is the Consumer Sentiment Index Capable of Forecasting the Transaction Activeness of Clients? Case Study for a Commercial Bank in China

The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), a leading macroeconomic indicator, reflects consumers' assessments of current financial situations, forecasts consumers' buying behavior, and allows business organizations, such as banks, to capture business opportunities. There is a consensus that the trend of the CSI can forecast consumption activities in a vast array of markets. However, this study demonstrates that it does so for banks only if and when the characteristics of client behavior are taken into account. The study thus contributes to filling a gap in the bank management literature. The managerial implication is that to improve performance, banks should focus on the bank-client relationship.