Is the Erosion Thesis Overblown? Alignment from Without in Germany

It is sometimes alleged that collective bargaining coverage in Germany is understated because uncovered firms ‘orient’ themselves toward sectoral agreements. In fact, although orientation has grown as sectoral bargaining has declined, their joint frequency has fallen. Further, where orientation occurs at firms that leave a sectoral agreement, it provides only partial compensation. But the small deficits involved, in conjunction with some indirect evidence on joiners, suggest modest attenuation of the undoubted decline in collective bargaining.