Is the Green Revolution Vanishing? Empirical Evidence from TFP Analysis for Rice

A serious concern has been raised recently on the long run sustainability of the productivity effects of Green Revolution technologies in the light of decelerating trend in the yield growth of rice since the mid 1980s under irrigated ecosystem. However, the changes in physical yield are not true measures of productivity from efficiency perspective. Total factor productivity (TFP) is a true measure of economic efficiency of any technology impact. The paper addresses the crucial issue of "is green revolution vanishing" empirically by analyzing TFP for rice in India. Results suggest that various modern technologies (such as modern cultivars) adopted by the farmers over the period have continued to make considerable impact on rice productivity growth-as reflected in the increasing trend of TFP growth. However, rate of increase in TFP growth has started to decelerate under the irrigated ecosystem during the late GR period. This implies that 'level' of productivity impact of the successive generations of modern technologies (such as new modern cultivars) has apparently been going down. This is not unusual to experience plateau or deceleration in TFP growth in the progressive areas because TFP level can not be increased at the same rate during the late GR period as it was during the early GR period.