Is There a North American Business Cycle? An Analysis of the Period 1963-2002

This paper investigates the business cycle linkages between Canada, Mexico, and the United States by examining the significant features of the three business cycles for the period 1963 to 2002. It analyzes the correlation between the cyclical fluctuations in these countries and tries to determine the existence of commonality and symmetry between the individual cycles. Using Markov-switching regimes in a multivariate framework and data on industrial production index and real GDP, we discover some synchronization of the business cycles in North America. Mexico and Canada individually share a common cycle with the U.S. but not with each other meaning there are key effects of increased integration between these countries