Is Yield Response Enough? Drought Impacts on Crop Acreage Throughout the Production Cycle

Climate change is amplifying the threat of drought to food security. While drought can cause significant agricultural production loss through both crop yield and acreage, previous studies have mostly overlooked the impacts of drought on crop acres. To address this gap, we study corn and soybean production in U.S. counties from 2001 to 2019, examining drought impacts on planned planting acres, prevented planting, and crop abandonment as climate adaptation responses. Our findings show that 28% (26%) of drought impacts on corn (soybean) production can be attributed to the net effect of farmers’ decisions on acres. Moreover, drought affects production throughout the crop year, not solely during the growing season. Specifications that omit pre-planting and planting-season drought underestimate the adverse impacts of growing-season drought on the harvested ratio, yield, and production of corn and soybeans by between 11 and 29 percent. Our findings highlight the role of adaptive behavioral responses in quantifying the extent of climate-related damage in agriculture