ISSUES IN MODELING BIOTERRORISM IN THE AGRIFOOD SECTOR

When considering the possibility of a bioterrorist attack on the United States food system it is generally agreed that U.S. agriculture is vulnerable to such an attack. In addition to the importance of being able to predict the likelihood of such an event and thereby attempt to prevent it, it is equally important to address the health and economic implications of an actual occurrence of a bioterrorist attack to provide insight into the potential costs resulting from such an unfortunate incident. Given the scarcity of funds to spend on prevention an understanding of the economic costs is important information for policy makers faced with the difficult decision of where to allocate such spending.The objective of this study is to examine the economy-wide effects of a bioterrorist attack, such as the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease, on the U.S. economy. In order to quantify the impact of the introduction of FMD to the U.S. livestock sector a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy is employed. The impact of FMD on the livestock sector is modeled via negative productivity shocks to the sector. Its potential impact on trade is modeled via a partial ban on U.S. exports of meats, dairy products and livestock. The introduction of FMD in the United States would have a huge impact on the domestic economy without even considering the costs of fighting and containing the outbreak. In an ideal world such a costly attack on the United States can be avoided entirely. However, as this study suggests, the importance of having plans in place for dealing with such an outbreak quickly and effectively is vital to the domestic economy.