Job stability trends, layoffs and quits: An empirical analysis for West Germany

This paper studies signs and reasons of decline of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-1997, we look at two measures for job stability. Based on repeated cross sectional data we first show that medium elapsed tenure declined for men. Secondly, we find that the measure of completed job duration can efficiently be used, to distinguish reasons for job termination and to surpass the problem of right censoring. Estimating hazard models with competing risks, we show that the decline in job stability of men can be attributed primarily to an increase in layoffs.