Justice under Uncertainty

Uncertain outcomes are an inevitable feature of policy choices and their public support often depends on their perceived justice. Surprisingly little is known about how people perceive justice under uncertainty. We theoretically and experimentally explore just allocations of resources when recipients are exposed to certainty or uncertainty. In the experiment, uninvolved participants (called Spectators) unequivocally choose to allocate resources equally between recipients, when there is no uncertainty. In stark contrast, with uncertainty just allocations are widely dispersed. Moreover, on average, uninvolved participants allocate less to recipients exposed to higher degrees of uncertainty. The observed allocations can be well organized by four different theoretical views of justice under uncertainty, indicating that uninvolved participants differ fundamentally in their views on justice under uncertainty