Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in Real-Time Squared

This study evaluates forecasting performance of a large-scale factor model developed in Siliverstovs and Kholodilin (2012) in a genuine ex ante forecasting exercise. We perform our forecast of GDP growth in Switzerland in real time using real-time data vintages collected at weekly frequency. This allows us to monitor how newly released economic and financial data influence our forecasts and hence capture prevailing tendencies in current course of economic development.

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Year of publication:	2012-04
Authors:	Siliverstovs, Boriss
Institutions:	KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, Technology and Economics (D-MTEC)
Subject:	inflation expectation formation \| time-varying parameters \| Bayesian methods \| disagreement \| media coverage \| stochastic volatility

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	KOF Working papers.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	Number 12-302 17 pages
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010541049