Land Use Policy and Transportation: Why We Won't Get There from Here

The purpose of this paper is to consider the effectiveness of land use policy as aninstrument for reducing environmental and other external costs associated with ownership anduse of the private automobile. Emphasis is placed on the long run, since land use change is a slowprocess, and consequently can potentially have significant effects only in the long run. I will arguethat land use change is driven by factors over which we have little policy control, and that currenttrends of decentralization will continue in the future. Although the link between urban form andtravel behavior may be significant, it is highly unlikely that policy actions could shift urban form topatterns associated with less private vehicle travel. The paper begins by presenting someinformation on international trends in travel and land use patterns. Then I discuss explanatoryfactors associated with these trends. The final part of the paper addresses the future, andconsiders the potential of land use policies in the context of long run trends.