Las exportaciones uruguayas y el tipo de cambio real: un análisis sectorial a través de modelos VECM- 1993-2010

Here we analyze the relationship between the Uruguayan exports: beef, dairy, chemicals and plastics, and the sectorial real exchange rate (TCRES), from January-93 to December-09 studying the possible cointegration between the variables. The results differ across sectors analyzed. International demand was silgnificant in all models. Upon disposal, most of the TCRES became significant with the expected sign, except plastic exports. This would not be checking at least in these cases, the theoretical relationship between increases on exports and improved competitiveness as measured by the real exchange rate. This raises new questions and an extensive agenda for future work.