Last Success Problem: Decision Rule and Application

Where is the most likely position for the last success in n events, if each event has the same probability Pr(A)? What is the probability for the last success? This situation assumes returning successes which is different to the stop waiting problem where a single best event is assumed. We set F. Thomas Bruss's theory into a simple probability framework and develop a decision rule for the last success. The results are applied to the Apple share prices.

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Year of publication:	2014
Authors:	Kohn, Wolfgang
Institutions:	Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft (ZBW)
Subject:	Optimal Stopping Problem \| Mathematical Tools

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	EconStor Preprints.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Classification:	C65 - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools ; E47 - Forecasting and Simulation ; G17 - Financial Forecasting
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957792