Le taux de chômage d'équilibre. Discussion théorique et évaluation empirique

This paper examines the notion of « equilibrium rate of unemployment » (ERU). An « asymmetric » wage-price setting based on a wage Phillips curve and on a price equation in level leads to a clear distinction between medium and long run ERU, as to a kind of reconciliation between WS/PS and Phillips models. This paper proposes medium and long run ERU estimates for six countries (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Spain and United States), incorporating institutional variables. The evolution of the medium run ERU explain relatively well those of the actual unemployment rate until the late eighties. In the nineties, the actual unemployment lies above its equilibrium level suggesting that a important part of the European unemployment is due to an excess supply.