Least-cost network evaluation of centralized and decentralized contributions to global electrification

The choice between centralized and decentralized electricity generation is examined for 150 countries as a function of population distribution, electricity consumption, transmission cost, and the cost difference between decentralized and centralized electricity generation. A network algorithm is developed to find the shortest centralized transmission network that spans a given fraction of the population in a country. The least-cost combination of centralized and decentralized electricity that serves the country is determined. Case studies of Botswana, Uganda, and Bangladesh illustrate situations that are more and less suited for decentralized electrification. Specific maps for centralized and decentralized generation are presented to show how the least-cost option varies with the relative costs of centralized and decentralized generation and transmission cost. Centralized and decentralized fractions are calculated for 150 countries. For most of the world's population, centralized electricity is the least-cost option. For a number of countries, particularly in Africa, substantial populations and regions may be most cost-effectively served by decentralized electricity.