Les émissions de CO₂ du Brésil : impact de l'usage des terres, de leur changement d'affectation et de la foresterie

The Kaya identity expresses carbon dioxide emissions of a country according to economic, demographic and energy factors. From this equation, several studies decompose into periods, the effects of the population, GDP per head, energy intensity (energy-to-GDP ratio) and carbon intensity (carbon-to-energy ratio) variables on Brazilian emissions. They do not take into account<np pagenum="108"/> CO<indice>2</indice> emissions generated by the LULUCF activities (Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestery). In order to better highlight what is at stake with climate policies, we propose a decomposition analysis of the behavior of the driving factors of CO<indice>2</indice> emissions, including the LULUCF sector data. Its influence on the variation of total emissions proves determining, both as a stimulant over the period of massive deforestation of 1994-2000 and as a moderator from 2000 until 2005, the year when the avoided deforestation program was first drafted.