Les déterminants de l'épidémie du VIH/SIDA en Afrique subsaharienne

This paper decomposes the impact of the determinants of the evolution of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1997 to 2005. We classify the set of determinants into socio-economic, epidemiological and sociologic and cultural and we try to assess the importance of each group of determinants on the spread of the epidemic across the continent. Using panel data of 42 African countries from the 1997-2005 period, we examine the link between the three categories of determinants and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. After a logit transformation of the HIV prevalence rate among adult population (15-49), we estimate our equation with the random effects model and we include a regional dummy in order to capture sub-regional differences in the spread of the epidemic. Then we estimate the same equation using prevalence rate among young population (15-24). Finally, we regress the same equation with the generalized method of moments (GMM) to accounts for dynamic effects in our model. Our results are robust and our analysis shows that epidemiological and socio-cultural variables have a greater impact than socio-economic ones. More importantly, within the group of socio-economic variables, education and women?s economic independence, as well as income inequality appear very important in determining the spread of the epidemic.