Life Begins at 40 : The Nexus of Bureaucracy and Budgeting in China

This paper studies the role of bureaucracy in determining China's fiscal picture through the lens of local government debt. By empirically examining the causality between politicians' profile and budgeting, I unveil some opportunistic behaviors that stem from age-based promotion incentives. Incumbent mayors and party secretaries have the highest likelihood of being promoted when assuming office in their 40s. Accordingly, a hump-shaped curve arises for infrastructure spending and land sale with regard to an official's age