Life Performance = Motivation x Ability x Opportunity: Individual Differences in Predictive Models

Previous research showed that prediction of life performance from information about motivation and ability follows the multiplying rule. The present experiment added a third supposedly multiplying factor, external opportunity, and tested the plausibility of the three-factor multiplying model. There was no evidence for the hypothesized model in either group or individual subject level analysis. Subjects (n = 72) employed as many as 11 different models. These models indicated that the opportunity information multiplied one of the two internal factors, either motivation or ability. Moreover, when it played an additive role, the relationship between motivation and ability was generally additive. Two rival hypotheses, differences in social theories about how the three factors determine life performance and differences in information valuation due to presence of separate initial opinions of motivation, ability, and opportunity in the subjects, were suggested to account for the individual differences in predictive models.